Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Shivam Tripathi  V.V. Srinivas  Ravi S. Nanjundiah 《Journal of Hydrology》2006,330(3-4):621-640

The Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies.  相似文献   

郑州市降水pH值变化分析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

秦福生马体顺  张志红余辉 《河南气象》2006,(4):48-49

利用郑州市国家基准气候站1994~2005年酸雨观测资料,分析研究了郑州市降水pH值的状况和变化,结果表明:郑州市近几年降水的pH值有逐年减小的趋势,pH值小于5.6的降水次数和频率有增加的趋势;从季节分布来看,降水pH值秋冬比春夏小。酸雨增强的主要原因是煤炭的高消耗排放的SO2量较大,再者是机动车废气排放增加,另外气候条件对酸雨的形成也有影响。  相似文献   

1961年以来海南岛降水变化趋势分析   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

王胜  吴坤悌陈明 《广西气象》2006,27(1):24-27,44

应用趋势分析法和聚类分析法等方法分析了海南岛全岛各站点1961～2004年雨量和雨日分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明：全岛年降水主要集中在5～10月份；年均雨量最多在中部和东部沿海地区，其中琼中最高（2438．9mm／a）；最少在西部沿海地区；不同等级降雨雨日分布与雨量基本一致。从年际变化看，全岛年雨量、早期雨量、汛期雨量均呈增加的趋势；全岛平均年降雨日数、毛毛雨日数以及年最长持续降雨日数均呈逐渐减少的趋；而全岛多年平均年大雨日数、暴雨日数则呈逐渐增加的趋势。  相似文献   

陆面过程模式SSiB在中国西北典型干旱区使用性能的检验   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

朱德琴  高晓清 《高原气象》2005,24(6):872-879

利用2000年5月25日～6月15日敦煌试验加强期的观测资料，检验了SSiB模式在我国西北典型干旱区的使用性能。结果表明，在无降水强迫的情况下，模式对净辐射、感热、潜热和地表温度有较好的再现能力；但当加入降水强迫时，模式输出的模拟值与实测值有较大的差别，究其原因这可能与该模式对干旱区土壤水运动过程描述不准确有关。因此，要将此模式应用于典型干旱区，需要做进一步的改进工作。  相似文献   

春季南半球环状模与长江流域夏季降水的关系：Ⅰ 基本事实   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

南素兰  李建平 《气象学报》2005,63(6):837-846

利用统计方法对春季(4~5月)南半球环状模(SAM)与夏季(6~8月)中国降水的关系作了分析,发现春季南半球环状模指数(SAMI)与夏季长江中下游降水之间存在显著的正相关关系。春季SAM偏强的同期对流层下层在欧亚大陆存在一以蒙古高原和天山山脉为中心的异常反气旋对,从中国东北到华南中纬度地区均为异常的偏北气流控制。这种环流异常形式可以持续到夏季并加强,致使东亚夏季风减弱;春季SAM偏强,夏季西太平洋副热带高压西部脊强度加强,位置偏西,这些异常环流都有利于长江中下游地区降水偏多。另外,春季SAM偏强,夏季长江中下游地区水汽含量增大,向上的垂直运动得到加强,为该地区降水偏多提供了基本的水汽条件。春季SAM偏弱时,夏季东亚大气环流和水汽条件相反。因此,春季SAM为夏季长江中下游汛期降水提供了一有用的前期信号。  相似文献   

液态二氧化碳(LC)播撒装置应用研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

樊鹏　余兴雷恒池  陈保国梁谷岳治国  张晓庆 《应用气象学报》2005,16(5):685-692

针对液态二氧化碳(LC)的播撒问题, 给出了其播撒装置的基本特征、播撒率及主要影响因子;用FSSP-100 、2D-C粒子测量仪、三用滴谱仪及能见度仪等设备测定了LC播出物的相态、粒子形状和尺度谱。测定表明:LC播出物为液、固、气态二氧化碳三相共存混合物。液态、固态粒子存在时间约100～101s, 粒子尺度10-1～102μm, 播出物流束中单位体积质量可达3.6 g·m-3。这些测定结果为使用LC作为冷云催化剂提供了可靠依据, 为国内在较暖云顶层状云中开展人工增雨作业提供了合适的催化技术。  相似文献   

An Objective Approach for Prediction of Daily Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Orissa (India) due to Interaction of Mesoscale and Large-scale Synoptic Systems     

M. Mohapatra  U. C. Mohanty 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1683-1698

Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1–10, 11–25, 26–50, 51–100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980–1994, and data during 1995–1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions in Orissa, the PoP model performs very well with percentages of correct forecast for occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation being about 96% and 88%, respectively for developmental and independent data. The skill of the QPF model, though relatively less, is reasonable for lower ranges of precipitation. The skill of the model is limited for higher ranges of precipitation. accepted September 2006  相似文献   

水汽输送对雅鲁藏布江流域降水中稳定同位素的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘忠方  田立德  姚檀栋  巩同梁  尹常亮 《地球科学进展》2007,22(8):842-850

利用NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析格点资料和2005年西藏雅鲁藏布江流域4个站点（拉孜、奴各沙、羊村和奴下）降水中δ18O数据，分析了雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O变化同水汽输送通量的关系。从空间上来看，雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O同水汽输送通量呈明显的正相关，从下游至上游，随着水汽输送通量的减少，降水中的δ18O逐渐降低；从时间上来看，春季水汽通量较小，降水中的δ18O较高，而在夏季，水汽通量大，降水中的δ18O较低。在此基础上，又利用NCEP/NCAR气象数据建立水汽追踪模型，以羊村站为例对雅鲁藏布江流域降水的水汽输送过程进行了追踪模拟，并讨论了降水中δ18O变化同水汽源地以及输送过程的关系。结果发现，在季风降水之前的春季，降水中较高的δ18O主要受西风带水汽输送以及当地蒸发水汽的影响；在季风期间，降水中较低的δ18O主要受来自印度洋暖湿水汽输送的影响。   相似文献   

中国降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

钟中  胡轶佳  闵锦忠 《地球物理学报》2007,50(5):1330-1336

利用中国740站45年降水资料按5种分辨率分气候区计算了降水年际和年代际变率. 降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性分析表明，中国各气候区降水年际变率对空间尺度的敏感性都随空间尺度的增加而逐渐减小，且存在明显的季节变化，而年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性却随空间尺度的增加而增大，但不存在季节变化；由于中国各气候区降水的特殊性，各气候区降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感程度存在不可忽视的差异.在年际和年代际尺度上，西南地区降水变率对空间尺度都是最敏感的，因而该区域降水年际和年代际变率信号的检测最困难.而华南地区在年际尺度上比较敏感，年代际尺度却不敏感，但华南地区在年际和年代际尺度上区域内降水分布的非均匀程度对空间尺度的敏感性都最大.  相似文献   

利用TRMM卫星资料分析"桑美"台风云系特征   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  

王新利  唐传师  刘显通  夏秋萍 《气象与减灾研究》2007,30(3):7-11,F0002,F0003

利用TRMM卫星测雨雷达、微波成像仪探测结果,结合天气图、FY-2c卫星云图、南昌多普勒雷达图,对"桑美"台风活动的大气环流、不同阶段云系特点,以及云中冰、水结构进行了分析.结果表明,"桑美"云系在洋面时有清晰的台风眼和云墙结构,螺旋云带范围较大,在云墙和螺旋云带处存在较强降水;临近登陆时螺旋云带和降水范围明显减小,但云墙处分布大量冰粒子和水粒子,云墙处对流极其强烈,中心区域强降水云系更为紧密;登陆后云墙结构消散,强度减弱."桑美"登陆后降水水平范围明显减小,且中心处的降水强度也要小于在洋面时,台风云顶高度明显小于在洋面时."桑美"登陆后在江西境内的对流降水样本比例和降水贡献率都远高于在洋面上,其中10～20 mm/h对流性降水贡献率达46.7%,导致江西局部产生大暴雨.  相似文献